Stoner is a Motegi threat

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Casey Stoner will not retire from MotoGP as world champion, having sat out the past three rounds due to the ankle injury he sustained at Indianapolis, and the subsequent operation.

He is now 104 points behind championship leader Jorge Lorenzo, with four rounds and just 100 points to win.

Pos	Rider	Bike	Points
1.	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	270
2.	Dani Pedrosa	Honda	232
3.	Casey Stoner	Honda	186
4.	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	163
5.	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	148
6.	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	120
7.	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	118
8.	Stefan Bradl	Honda	115
9.	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	93
10.	Ben Spies	Yamaha	77

But Dani Pedrosa has 71 points over Stoner, in second place, and the Spaniard has his sights aimed firmly on closing down Lorenzo's 33-point lead to steal his first ever MotoGP crown having won three of the past 4 GPs in his late charge for the title.

Lorenzo and Pedrosa, no doubt, will be calculating points in their heads as the 24-lapper winds down, and who knows what that might mean for Stoner if their concentration lapses.

Having raced bravely to fourth place in Indianapolis, Stoner has to be a chance of a podium at least in Japan. And he may even play a role in deciding the title race should he finish between Pedrosa and Lorenzo.

Valentino Rossi may spring a surprise at the Japanese circuit on the Italian Ducati, the only non-Japanese "main game" players. Acceleration is critical at Motegi, and that's the Desmosedici's strongest point - along with the new frame from Aragon.

Andrea Dovizioso, Cal Crutchlow, Ben Spies, Nicky Hayden, Stefan Bradl and Alvaro Bautista could mix things right up in their season-ending races.

Weather may also have an effect on the race: showers at night; sunny during the day; light-but-gusty winds all weekend, changing direction 180 degrees just before the race - which will affect gearing and braking markers for race.

Stoner's first session back at Motegi went sour after two corners, when his bike stopped.

He jumped the Armco, got a lift back to the pits, went out on his second bike for three laps, then a couple of in-and-out laps, then three more laps at the end of the session put him fourth, 0.75 second behind Lorenzo on top, followed by Pedrosa and Dovizioso.

My bet is that Casey will get quicker as the weekend progresses, as well as being a threat over race distance on Sunday.

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